Thursday, September 15, 2011

Song of the Turtle

For fans of Detroit Tigers baseball, this has been an already unforgettable season filled with record breaking streaks, come-from-behind victories and blood pressure spiking drama. The Tigers are headed into tonight's game against the Oakland A's riding high on a 12 game winning streak, sitting atop the AL Central Division a robust 25 games over .500. They could clinch the division tonight with a win and losses by the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians and are just 3.5 games back of the New York Yankees for home field advantage through the ALCS. Even their last loss should have been a win, a lose from ahead effort where Kansas City got the best of the Detroit bullpen. Playoff runs in baseball should not be taken lightly, as the Tigers have only 13 playoff berths in their 110 years of existence, advancing to the World Series 10 of those 13 times while winning 4 rings. The last run, as most of us surely remember, ended in a comedy of errors losing to the St. Louis Cardinals in 2006.


The current winning streak puts the Tigers within 2 wins of tying the franchise record of 14 set in 1909 and tied in 1934. It also bests or ties the record streaks of 10 other franchises, including the best runs of "older" clubs like the Mets and Reds. During this latest run, the Tigers have come from behind to take the lead after the 6th inning 3 times and have caused the closer of the division rival White Sox, Sergio Santos, to blow 2 saves while Tigers' ace Justin Verlander has won 3 games and closer Jose Valverde has picked up 4 saves. This coming from a team that started slow out of the gates, managing a 49-43 record in the first half of the season. The Tigers had lost 7 in a row on May 2nd and were a season high 8 games back on May 3rd. But that all changed in grand fashion post All-Star break.




The Tigers have gone 38-19 since, bolstered by the dominance of Verlander and an offense that has regained its mightiness behind the big bats of megastar Miguel Cabrera, free agent acquisition Victor Martinez, emerging star Alex Avila and a resurgent Jhonny Peralta. Verlander has been so dominant that he has forced his way into uncharted territory for pitchers, the most valuable player conversation. Verlander has emerged as the game's most irreplaceable cog, the engine of the Tigers. The stat now widely accepted to measure a player's overall worth to a team, WAR or wins above replacement, ranks him (8.0) as the 2nd best player in the AL behind only Jose Bautista (8.2) of the Toronto Blue Jays. Keep in mind, these metrics are generally not kind to pitchers as there has NEVER been a pitcher to lead the league in this category in the modern era. To further put this into perspective, Miguel Cabrera, who has been lights out all year, has a WAR of 6.2. The best WAR of this century was in 2001 when Barry Bonds hit 73 home runs, drove in 177 runs and batted .328 for a WAR of 12.5. Baseball is not just a game of math, but when all factors are considered, Verlander's place in the discussion for MVP is firm, right next to Bautista, Cabrera, Curtis Granderson, Jacoby Ellsbury, Adrian Gonzalez, Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia.


The other major factor in the Tigers' success has been the 2nd half performance of the bullpen, most notably Joaquin Benoit and Valverde. Benoit was a free agent signing coming off of the most dominant season of any reliever in the league. The Tigers subsequently offered him a 3 year, $16.5 million deal and caught some flak for giving closer money to a setup man. Benoit gave the critics more ammo by starting sluggishly, struggling through late April/early May, though he has turned it around over the last 4 months having not allowed an earned run since August 2nd. Valverde, on the other hand, has been reasonably consistent barring a mediocre May, and still has yet to blow a save opportunity, converting on a team record 44 in a row this season.




On the verge of clinching the division, the Tigers still have plenty to play for. Home field advantage, Verlander's MVP candidacy, the team record winning streak and Valverde's saves run are still at stake. They also must continue to prove that they are not just a product of a weak division, as they are 46-21 against division opponents and 41-41 against everyone else. This is the time of year that you want to see your team get hot and carry it through the playoffs and the Tigers appear to be doing just that. Hold on to your hats folks, even though the Twins aren't chasing them down there promises to be plenty more suspense as the regular season comes to a close.


Let's win it all for Sparky and Ernie!


"For lo, the winter is past, the rain is over and gone;
the flowers appear on the earth;
the time of the singing of birds is come,
and the voice of the turtle is heard in our land."

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